Spatiotemporal Variation in Extreme Climate in the Yellow River Basin and its Impacts on Vegetation Coverage
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Data Sources and Processing
2.3. Analysis Procedure
2.4. Methods
2.4.1. Theil-Sen Trend Analysis Method
2.4.2. Geographical Detector Model
2.4.3. Pearson Correlation Coefficient
2.4.4. Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression
3. Results
3.1. Variation Characteristics of Extreme Climate Indices in the YRB
3.1.1. Temporal Dynamics of the Extreme Precipitation Indices
3.1.2. Spatial Evolution in Extreme Precipitation Indices
3.1.3. Temporal Dynamics of the Extreme Temperature Indices
3.1.4. Spatial Evolution in Extreme Temperature Indices
3.2. Spatiotemporal Changes in NDVI
3.3. Uncovering the Major Factors Driving the NDVI Spatial Distribution
3.4. NDVI Response to Extreme Climate
3.4.1. Correlation between Extreme Precipitation and NDVI
3.4.2. Correlation between Extreme Temperature and NDVI
3.4.3. The Impacts of ECCs on NDVI for Various Vegetation Classes
4. Discussion
4.1. Model Fitting and Illustrations
4.2. The Impact of Extreme Climate Change on Vegetation
4.3. Limitations and Uncertainty
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Classification | Extreme Climate Indices | Description | Unit |
---|---|---|---|
Precipitation intensity index | Rx1day | Maximum 1-day precipitation | mm |
Rx5day | Maximum 5-day precipitation | mm | |
PRCPTOT | Annual total precipitation on wet days | mm | |
SDII | Simple daily precipitation intensity index | mm/d | |
R95p | Annual contribution from very wet days (daily precipitation is greater than the 95th percentile of precipitation) | mm | |
R99p | Annual contribution from extremely wet days (daily precipitation is greater than the 99th percentile of precipitation) | mm | |
Precipitation persistence index | CDD | Maximum length of dry spell, maximum number of consecutive days with daily precipitation less than 1 mm | Days |
CWD | Maximum length of wet spell; maximum number of consecutive days with daily precipitation greater than 1 mm | Days | |
Precipitation frequency index | R10mm | Annual count of days when daily precipitation is greater or equal to 10 mm | Days |
R20mm | Annual count of days when daily precipitation is greater or equal to 20 mm | Days | |
R25mm | Annual count of days when daily precipitation is greater or equal to 25 mm | Days | |
Cold extreme temperature | TX10p | Percentage of days when the daily maximum temperature is less than that of the 10th percentile | % |
TN10p | Percentage of days when the daily minimum temperature is less than that of the 10th percentile | % | |
TNn | The minimum value of the daily minimum temperature | °C | |
TXn | Minimum value of daily maximum temperature | °C | |
FD | Number of frost days | Days | |
Warm extreme temperature | TX90p | Percentage of days when the daily maximum temperature is greater than the 90th percentile | % |
TN90p | Percentage of days when the daily minimum temperature is greater than the 90th percentile | % | |
TNx | The maximum value of the daily minimum temperature | °C | |
TXx | Maximum value of daily maximum temperature | °C | |
SU | Number of summer days | Days | |
Temperature intensity index | DTR | Daily temperature range | °C |
Temperature persistence index | GSL | Growing season length | Days |
WSDI | Warm spell duration index | Days | |
CSDI | Cold spell duration index | Days |
2000 | VIF Value | 2005 | VIF Value | 2010 | VIF Value | 2015 | VIF Value | 2020 | VIF Value |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PRCPTOT | 4.494 | PRCPTOT | 8.911 | PRCPTOT | 9.156 | PRCPTOT | 8.857 | PRCPTOT | 7.706 |
R10mm | 5.439 | R10mm | 5.216 | R10mm | 6.348 | R10mm | 6.741 | R99p | 3.566 |
FD | 3.883 | R95p | 5.074 | R95p | 8.291 | R95p | 2.872 | R95p | 9.112 |
DTR | 4.009 | Rx5day | 3.880 | Rx5day | 2.4 |
Year | 2000 | 2005 | 2010 | 2015 | 2020 | Average of 21 Years |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dominant factors | PRCPTOT | PRCPTOT R10mm CWD | PRCPTOT TXn R10mm | PRCPTOT | PRCPTOT R10mm | PRCPTOT R10mm |
Secondary factors | CWD R10mm | R95p Rx5day | R95p R99p CWD | CWD CDD | R99p CDD R95p CWD | CWD R95p CDD |
Year | Rank of Interactive Explanatory Power (Top Five) |
---|---|
2000 | PRCPTOT ∩ R20mm = 0.5969 ** > PRCPTOT ∩ TNx = 0.5962 ** > PRCPTOT ∩ SU = 0.5856 ** > PRCPTOT ∩ SDII = 0.5852 ** > PRCPTOT ∩ GSL = 0.5781 ** |
2005 | PRCPTOT ∩ TNn = 0.6362 ** > PRCPTOT ∩ TN10p =0.6336 ** > PRCPTOT ∩TXx = 0.6259 ** > PRCPTOT ∩ TX90p = 0.6236 ** > PRCPTOT ∩ SDII = 0.6219 ** |
2010 | PRCPTOT ∩ TXn = 0.6083 ** > PRCPTOT ∩ TX10p = 0.6052 ** > R95p ∩ TXn = 0.6025 ** > PRCPTOT ∩ R25mm = 0.6012 ** > Rx5day ∩ TXn = 0.5990 ** |
2015 | PRCPTOT ∩ SU = 0.5930 ** > PRCPTOT ∩ TNx = 0.5877 ** > R95p ∩ TXx = 0.5868 ** > CWD∩ R20mm = 0.5857 ** > PRCPTOT ∩ TX90p = 0.5828 * |
2020 | PRCPTOT ∩ TNx = 0.5781 ** > PRCPTOT ∩ TXx = 0.5736 ** > PRCPTOT ∩ GSL = 0.5712 ** > PRCPTOT ∩ TX10p = 0.5678 ** > PRCPTOT ∩ FD = 0.5662 ** |
Year | OLS | GWR | MGWR | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Adj.R2 | AICc | Adj.R2 | AICc | Adj.R2 | AICc | |
2000 | 0.485 | 9404.078 | 0.705 | 7610.028 | 0.761 | 5441.652 |
2005 | 0.535 | 9487.666 | 0.776 | 7298.727 | 0.740 | 5726.879 |
2010 | 0.495 | 9819.916 | 0.755 | 7588.276 | 0.765 | 5361.018 |
2015 | 0.478 | 9776.743 | 0.737 | 7707.585 | 0.767 | 5346.585 |
2020 | 0.493 | 9119.293 | 0.704 | 7610.028 | 0.725 | 5954.629 |
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Li, Z.; Xue, H.; Dong, G.; Liu, X.; Lian, Y. Spatiotemporal Variation in Extreme Climate in the Yellow River Basin and its Impacts on Vegetation Coverage. Forests 2024, 15, 307. https://doi.org/10.3390/f15020307
Li Z, Xue H, Dong G, Liu X, Lian Y. Spatiotemporal Variation in Extreme Climate in the Yellow River Basin and its Impacts on Vegetation Coverage. Forests. 2024; 15(2):307. https://doi.org/10.3390/f15020307
Chicago/Turabian StyleLi, Zichuang, Huazhu Xue, Guotao Dong, **aomin Liu, and Yaokang Lian. 2024. "Spatiotemporal Variation in Extreme Climate in the Yellow River Basin and its Impacts on Vegetation Coverage" Forests 15, no. 2: 307. https://doi.org/10.3390/f15020307