3.1. The EAC’s Shoreward Intrusion: Time Series, Wavelet Analysis and Statistics
Time series (1992–2018) of the “area” and “distance” of the EAC’s shoreward intrusion are shown in
Figure 2(a1,b1). In general, high-frequency fluctuations were observed throughout the “area” and “distance” time series, indicating that the EAC intrusion can occur all year round. On average, the area index is 3169 ± 1772 km
2, occupying 17.98±10.05% of the continental shelf (
Figure 1a). In extreme EAC intrusion events, the EAC was observed occupying more than 40% of the shelf (e.g., 41.46% in January 1997, 43.55% in April 2005 and 46.55% in February 2016, as highlighted (red dots) in
Figure 2(a1)). Overall, the distance index is 26.87 ± 4.29 km. During extreme events, the distance is typically reduced to less than 20 km. For example, in the above-mentioned extreme cases, the distances were 18.02, 17.48 and 18.80 km, respectively (
Figure 2(b1)).
The results of the wavelet analyses are shown in
Figure 2(a2,a3,b2,b3). Generally, high-frequency variability at the period of around 0.25 years (i.e., ~90 days) was observed throughout the entire time series of both “area” and “distance,” as shown by the black contours in the local power spectra (
Figure 2(a2,b2)) and the small peaks in the global power spectra (
Figure 2(a3,b3)). This is not surprising because the EAC encroachment has been associated with its high-frequency intrinsic oscillation and eddy shedding in a map** study using six-day composited Himawari-8 SST images [
1]. However, in our study, the power of the high-frequency signal is considerably weaker, which is most likely due to the use of the monthly averaging SST data.
This study focuses on the lower-frequency variability of the EAC’s shoreward intrusion. Significantly, a clear annual signal was detected from the wavelet spectra (
Figure 2b,c). The local spectra (
Figure 2(a2,b2)) identify a consistent higher-power band with a period of one year throughout the time series. This one-year periodicity is also clearly identified as the highest peak in the global power spectra (
Figure 2(a3,b3)). From 1992 to 2018, this annual signal is continuous and statistically significant (based on chi-square test) except for just some short periods (e.g., 2000–2002 and 2012–2013;
Figure 2(a2,b2)). This indeed demonstrates that, while the EAC intrudes shoreward at higher-frequencies (e.g., every 60–100 days) all year round (
Figure 2) [
1,
4,
12], the intrusion also exhibits seasonal cycles (detailed below).
The monthly variability of the EAC’s shoreward intrusion is shown in
Figure 2c. Generally, both “area” and “distance” of the EAC intrusion undergo a clear seasonal cycle, confirming that the EAC is closer to the coast in austral summer than in winter. Specifically, the area (percentage) reaches its maximum during January (3955 ± 692 km
2; 22.44 ± 3.93%), February (4186 ± 688 km
2; 23.75 ± 3.91%), and March (4224 ± 750 km
2; 23.96 ± 4.26%). Correspondingly, this is a period when the distance drops to its minimum, being 24.63 ± 1.85 km, 24.35 ± 1.28 km and 23.69 ± 1.15 km, respectively. In contrast, the area (percentage) is lowest in June (2149 ± 586 km
2; 12.19 ± 3.32%) and July (2161 ± 556 km
2; 12.26 ± 3.16%) when the maximum distance was observed (29.38 ± 1.65 km in July). The overall (26 years) monthly mean indicates that the EAC waters could be ~10 km closer to the coast in summer than in winter.
In
Figure 3, we compare the maximum and minimum EAC-to-coast distances in winter and summer, respectively, from 1992 to 2017. In general, the maximum EAC-to-coast distance occurs during winter (blue line), ranging from 30 to 40 km. In contrast (red line), the minimum distance usually occurs during summer, ranging from 15 to 25 km. The difference (black line) between the maximum distance in winter and the minimum distance in summer is 10.86 km (mean), with a standard deviation of 3.41 km. As the continental shelf off southeast Australia is narrow (~25 km) [
44], such seasonal intrusion of the EAC could exert significant influence on coastal hydrodynamics in this region (discussions in
Section 4.2 and
Section 4.3).
3.2. Quantitative Maps of the EAC: Location, Frequency, Main Path and Centerline
Spatially, the EAC’s shoreward intrusion is directly associated with changes in the EAC’s path and/or width. This is demonstrated in the long-term composite maps of the EAC (
Figure 4). Along the north NSW coast (28–32°S) and onshore of the shelf-break, both areal extent and frequency of EAC intrusion are considerably larger in summer than in winter (
Figure 4b,c). This coincides with the seasonal shift of the EAC’s main path, represented by an area with an EAC frequency > 50%, and its centerline, with the seasonal widening of the EAC (
Figure 4d).
Specifically, downstream of 29°40′S, the three centerlines (summer, winter and 26-year) generally overlap, with insignificant meridional (cross-shelf) displacement of 2.03 ± 0.98 km between summer and winter (
Figure 4d,e). However, in this area, the EAC’s width exhibits significant seasonality, being broadest (52.85 ± 13.44 km) in December (austral summer) and narrowest (42.44 ± 11.50 km) in July (austral winter) (
Figure 4d). This seasonal broadening of the EAC is also clearly shown in
Figure 4b,c, where the EAC’s main path, downstream of 29°40′S, is notably narrower (~10 km) in winter than in summer.
In contrast, upstream of 29°40′S, the EAC’s path (centerline) undergoes considerable seasonal shift (
Figure 4d,e). The centerline is centered at ~154°0′E and is on average ~8 km closer to the coast in summer than in winter. At 28°30′S, we observed the maximum shoreward displacement of 11.67 km (
Figure 4e). In terms of the EAC’s width, we noted that it is similar in summer (44.87 ± 12.80 km) and winter (46.05 ± 12.41 km) in this area.