Downscaling of Future Precipitation in China’s Bei**g-Tian**-Hebei Region Using a Weather Generator
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Data and Methods
2.1. Precipitation Data from Observations and GCMs
2.2. Precipitation Indices
2.3. Calculation of WG Parameters
2.4. Precipitation Simulation and Future Changes in Indices
3. Results and Discussion
3.1. Performance of the Precipitation Generator
3.2. Changes in Precipitation
3.3. Changes of Extreme Precipitation
3.4. Changes to Drought Risk
4. Conclusions
- Compared with the baseline during 1961–2005, the regional average annual precipitation is projected to increase in all three future periods across the Bei**g-Tian**-Hebei region under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. This increase would be particularly large during 2051–2070 under RCP 8.5, with an increase in 10.3%.
- The projected changes in the number of days with precipitation are relatively small across the Bei**g-Tian**-Hebei region. Regional average Nrain increases by 0.2~1.0% under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, except during 2031–2050 under RCP 8.5 when it decreases by 0.7%.
- The annual intensity of precipitation at most stations across the Bei**g-Tian**-Hebei region is projected to increase except for some southern stations. Especially in 2051–2070 under RCP 8.5, the intensity would increase by more than 10% at most northern stations.
- There would be more extreme precipitation events across the Bei**g-Tian**-Hebei region in the future. Under RCP 4.5, Exc25 would continually increase across the Bei**g-Tian**-Hebei region. The regional average is projected to increase by 14.8%, 15.0%, and 15.3% during 2006–2030, 2031–2050, and 2051–2070, respectively. In 2051–2070 under RCP 8.5, this change reaches 18.9%. At most northern stations, Exc25 is projected to increase by more than 20%, and even more than 50% at some northwest stations.
- The relative increase in Exc40 is the largest among the eight indices. The regional average annual Exc40 across the Bei**g-Tian**-Hebei region would increase by more than 20% under RCP 4.5. Under RCP 8.5 during 2051–2070, this increase would reach 26.3%.
- Although simulated Px1d and Px5d increase overall in the Bei**g-Tian**-Hebei region, there is high variability among stations, which demonstrates the need for downscaling. These indices would increase at some stations, and decrease at others. The regional average of Px1d and Px5d across the Bei**g-Tian**-Hebei region simulated by the five GCMs presented an increase of 8~15% under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, and there would be decreases in these indices at 20~35% of the stations in the region.
- Generally, the average Pxcdd in the Bei**g-Tian**-Hebei region is projected to decrease in the future, and the drought risk in this area is expected to decrease. This change may be considered a good thing, despite the very small change projected. However, the consistency of change in Pxcdd between stations is the lowest among the eight indices, and around half of the stations showed negative changes under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 in the future three periods.
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Index | Description (Unit) |
---|---|
Arain | Amount of annual precipitation (mm) |
Nrain | Number of days with precipitation ≥0.1 mm (d) |
Pint | Daily precipitation intensity (precipitation total per rainy day, mm/d) |
Exc25 | Number of days with precipitation ≥25 mm (d) |
Exc40 | Number of days with precipitation ≥40 mm (d) |
Px1d | Greatest one-day precipitation (mm) |
Px5d | Greatest five-day total precipitation (mm) |
Pxcdd | Maximum number of consecutive days without precipitation (d) |
Time Period (Climate Change Scenario) | Data Source | Arain | Nrain | Pint | Exc25 | Exc40 | Px1d | Px5d | Pxcdd |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2006–2030 (RCP4.5) | GCMs | 3.2 | −1.1 | 4.5 | 9.4 | 21.1 | −0.7 | 5.6 | −5.3 |
Downscaling | 7.8 | 0.2 | 7.4 | 14.8 | 25.4 | 12.8 | 14.5 | −0.3 | |
2031–2050 (RCP4.5) | GCMs | 7.5 | 0.0 | 7.5 | 16.6 | 31.8 | 1.0 | 6.7 | −10.2 |
Downscaling | 8.5 | 0.5 | 7.9 | 15.0 | 21.7 | 8.3 | 10.4 | −0.5 | |
2051–2070 (RCP4.5) | GCMs | 7.6 | −0.6 | 8.3 | 18.2 | 39.7 | 9.0 | 9.8 | −18.0 |
Downscaling | 8.9 | 0.4 | 8.3 | 15.3 | 23.5 | 12.6 | 14.5 | −0.2 | |
2006–2030 (RCP8.5) | GCMs | 4.4 | 0.3 | 4.3 | 7.7 | 13.0 | -0.7 | 1.1 | −7.0 |
Downscaling | 5.6 | 0.6 | 4.9 | 9.8 | 17.7 | 10.8 | 11.9 | −0.5 | |
2031–2050 (RCP8.5) | GCMs | 5.8 | −0.6 | 6.5 | 15.0 | 27.7 | 0.9 | 4.6 | −12.6 |
Downscaling | 5.1 | −0.7 | 5.7 | 10.5 | 18.4 | 11.4 | 12.3 | −1.0 | |
2051–2070 (RCP8.5) | GCMs | 11.3 | −0.5 | 11.7 | 30.5 | 64.9 | 10.8 | 16.7 | −14.7 |
Downscaling | 10.3 | 1.0 | 9.3 | 18.9 | 26.3 | 8.6 | 9.1 | −1.0 |
Time Period (Climate Change Scenario) | GCMs | Arain | Nrain | Pint | Exc25 | Exc40 | Px1d | Px5d | Pxcdd |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2006–2030 (RCP4.5) | CNRM-CM5 | 16.0 | 4.9 | 10.5 | 22.8 | 35.4 | 20.5 | 23.2 | −0.6 |
CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 | 9.7 | 0.5 | 9.1 | 21.7 | 37.4 | 15.6 | 17.1 | 0.6 | |
EC-EARTH | 4.6 | −0.6 | 5.2 | 9.1 | 16.2 | 7.8 | 10.9 | −1.0 | |
MIROC-ESM-CHEM | 11.5 | −0.3 | 11.9 | 19.8 | 34.5 | 17.8 | 19.5 | −2.5 | |
NorESM1-M | −3.0 | −3.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 2.0 | |
Ensemble Mean | 7.8 | 0.2 | 7.4 | 14.8 | 25.4 | 12.8 | 14.5 | −0.3 | |
2031–2050 (RCP4.5) | CNRM-CM5 | 17.9 | 1.9 | 15.7 | 28.5 | 41.5 | 20.6 | 21.3 | 3.7 |
CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 | 0.3 | −1.4 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 6.6 | 2.1 | |
EC-EARTH | 18.1 | 4.0 | 13.5 | 30.3 | 44.5 | 16.1 | 19.7 | −2.1 | |
MIROC-ESM-CHEM | 2.8 | −2.5 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 5.5 | −3.6 | |
NorESM1-M | 3.5 | 0.7 | 2.8 | 7.9 | 5.3 | −5.4 | −1.0 | −2.4 | |
Ensemble Mean | 8.5 | 0.5 | 7.9 | 15.0 | 21.7 | 8.3 | 10.4 | −0.5 | |
2051–2070 (RCP4.5) | CNRM-CM5 | 25.6 | 6.1 | 18.3 | 40.0 | 56.7 | 25.9 | 29.2 | −2.1 |
CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 | −7.1 | −2.6 | −4.5 | −10.5 | −5.0 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 1.1 | |
EC-EARTH | 10.7 | 1.3 | 9.3 | 17.6 | 30.7 | 21.3 | 21.2 | 2.1 | |
MIROC-ESM-CHEM | 6.6 | 0.8 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 10.1 | 5.6 | 8.6 | −5.5 | |
NorESM1-M | 8.6 | −3.5 | 12.5 | 21.1 | 25.1 | 5.6 | 8.0 | 3.7 | |
Ensemble Mean | 8.9 | 0.4 | 8.3 | 15.3 | 23.5 | 12.6 | 14.5 | −0.2 | |
2006–2030 (RCP8.5) | CNRM-CM5 | 4.7 | 0.8 | 3.9 | 7.3 | 13.5 | 9.2 | 10.1 | 0.4 |
CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 8.1 | 18.5 | 12.5 | 13.0 | −3.7 | |
EC-EARTH | 11.7 | 2.0 | 9.5 | 20.2 | 35.0 | 18.8 | 22.0 | −2.2 | |
MIROC-ESM-CHEM | −1.1 | −3.5 | 2.5 | 0.2 | 7.0 | 11.9 | 10.1 | 1.2 | |
NorESM1-M | 7.0 | 0.8 | 6.1 | 13.4 | 14.7 | 1.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | |
Ensemble Mean | 5.6 | 0.6 | 4.9 | 9.8 | 17.7 | 10.8 | 11.9 | −0.5 | |
2031–2050 (RCP8.5) | CNRM-CM5 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 3.5 | 10.3 | 16.8 | 7.8 | 11.1 | −0.9 |
CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 | 6.7 | −0.2 | 6.9 | 15.1 | 33.7 | 17.9 | 18.7 | −4.4 | |
EC-EARTH | 14.3 | 1.5 | 12.7 | 23.8 | 31.3 | 17.1 | 18.1 | −0.1 | |
MIROC-ESM-CHEM | −3.8 | −5.9 | 2.2 | −4.7 | −6.5 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 0.0 | |
NorESM1-M | 3.2 | −0.2 | 3.4 | 7.9 | 16.5 | 11.3 | 11.2 | 0.4 | |
Ensemble Mean | 5.1 | −0.7 | 5.7 | 10.5 | 18.4 | 11.4 | 12.3 | −1.0 | |
2051–2070 (RCP8.5) | CNRM-CM5 | 15.6 | −0.5 | 16.3 | 29.1 | 35.8 | 8.2 | 9.1 | -0.2 |
CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 | 1.7 | 2.9 | −0.9 | 1.4 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 9.0 | 1.6 | |
EC-EARTH | 13.9 | 1.3 | 12.5 | 27.5 | 43.5 | 15.6 | 17.9 | −1.2 | |
MIROC-ESM-CHEM | 3.3 | −2.8 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 3.0 | −3.6 | |
NorESM1-M | 17.0 | 4.2 | 12.3 | 30.3 | 34.0 | 3.3 | 6.6 | −1.7 | |
Ensemble Mean | 10.3 | 1.0 | 9.3 | 18.9 | 26.3 | 8.6 | 9.1 | −1.0 |
Time Period (Climate Change Scenario) | Regions | Arain | Nrain | Pint | Exc25 | Exc40 | Px1d | Px5d | Pxcdd |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2006–2030 (RCP4.5) | Bei**g | 7.5 | −0.1 | 7.5 | 14.0 | 21.7 | 10.3 | 9.7 | −3.2 |
Tian** | 8.0 | 0.1 | 7.9 | 12.4 | 24.1 | 7.3 | 16.0 | −2.5 | |
**ongan New Area | 8.4 | −0.1 | 8.5 | 15.5 | 29.3 | 16.8 | 12.9 | 8.6 | |
2031–2050 (RCP4.5) | Bei**g | 8.9 | −0.1 | 9.0 | 16.4 | 20.4 | 4.8 | 3.2 | −0.9 |
Tian** | 8.4 | 0.3 | 8.0 | 12.8 | 18.9 | −3.3 | 5.7 | −1.0 | |
**ongan New Area | 10.8 | 0.8 | 9.8 | 18.6 | 29.9 | 11.6 | 14.4 | 7.2 | |
2051–2070 (RCP4.5) | Bei**g | 7.0 | −0.8 | 7.8 | 13.2 | 19.7 | 6.5 | 10.5 | 0.5 |
Tian** | 8.6 | −0.2 | 8.7 | 13.3 | 22.4 | 2.8 | 13.1 | 0.1 | |
**ongan New Area | 8.4 | 0.2 | 7.9 | 15.4 | 25.4 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 16.8 | |
2006–2030 (RCP8.5) | Bei**g | 5.9 | −0.2 | 6.2 | 11.4 | 19.6 | 10.4 | 11.4 | −2.0 |
Tian** | 5.9 | 0.4 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 16.6 | 0.4 | 10.6 | −0.6 | |
**ongan New Area | 5.2 | 0.5 | 4.8 | 9.1 | 18.4 | 9.8 | 10.1 | 1.1 | |
2031–2050 (RCP8.5) | Bei**g | 4.6 | −1.2 | 5.8 | 9.5 | 15.4 | 9.0 | 10.1 | −2.1 |
Tian** | 4.8 | −1.0 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 16.0 | 1.7 | 13.1 | −1.1 | |
**ongan New Area | 4.8 | −1.1 | 5.9 | 9.9 | 19.4 | 9.4 | 10.4 | 1.4 | |
2051–2070 (RCP8.5) | Bei**g | 12.3 | 0.6 | 11.6 | 22.5 | 31.5 | 10.3 | 13.3 | −3.0 |
Tian** | 11.7 | 0.4 | 11.3 | 17.9 | 26.2 | 1.1 | 7.2 | 0.8 | |
**ongan New Area | 9.3 | 0.5 | 8.8 | 15.6 | 23.3 | 7.0 | 9.7 | 13.2 |
Time Period | Climate Change Scenario | Arain | Nrain | Pint | Exc25 | Exc40 | Px1d | Px5d | Pxcdd |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2006–2030 | RCP4.5 | 1.1 | 44.8 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 25.3 | 21.8 | 54.0 |
RCP8.5 | 4.0 | 32.2 | 3.4 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 31.6 | 26.4 | 52.9 | |
2031–2050 | RCP4.5 | 0.0 | 33.9 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 33.9 | 32.2 | 53.4 |
RCP8.5 | 2.9 | 70.7 | 1.1 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 31.6 | 25.9 | 51.7 | |
2051–2070 | RCP4.5 | 0.0 | 45.4 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 29.3 | 24.1 | 47.7 |
RCP8.5 | 0.0 | 27.6 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 33.3 | 31.6 | 49.4 |
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Liao, Y.; Chen, D.; Han, Z.; Huang, D. Downscaling of Future Precipitation in China’s Bei**g-Tian**-Hebei Region Using a Weather Generator. Atmosphere 2022, 13, 22. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13010022
Liao Y, Chen D, Han Z, Huang D. Downscaling of Future Precipitation in China’s Bei**g-Tian**-Hebei Region Using a Weather Generator. Atmosphere. 2022; 13(1):22. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13010022
Chicago/Turabian StyleLiao, Yaoming, Deliang Chen, Zhenyu Han, and Dapeng Huang. 2022. "Downscaling of Future Precipitation in China’s Bei**g-Tian**-Hebei Region Using a Weather Generator" Atmosphere 13, no. 1: 22. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13010022