Modeling COVID-19 Transmission in Closed Indoor Settings: An Agent-Based Approach with Comprehensive Sensitivity Analysis
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area and Data
2.2. The Agent-Based Model
2.2.1. Purpose and Patterns
2.2.2. Entities, State Variables, and Scales
2.2.3. Process Overview and Scheduling
2.2.4. Design Concepts
Sensing
Interaction
Stochasticity
Observation
2.2.5. Initialization
2.2.6. Input Data
2.2.7. Sub-Models
Model Initialization
Direct Transmission Process
Movement of Agents
Indirect Transmission Process
External Infection Process
Incubation and Quarantine Process
Agents’ Mortality Process
Recovery Process
2.3. Model Calibration
2.4. Sensitivity Analysis
3. Results
3.1. Calibration
3.2. Base Scenario Dynamics
3.3. Sensitivity Analysis
3.3.1. Total Infections
3.3.2. Number of Infected Cases at Peak
3.3.3. The Peak Time Step
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
Appendix B
Appendix B.1
Appendix B.2
References
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Variable | Variable Type (Units) | Meaning |
---|---|---|
x | Real number (meters) | position of human agents |
y | ||
Real number | The probability of infection for normal human agents (Not vaccinated and without previous infection) | |
Real number | The probability of infection of reinfected human agents | |
Real number | The probability of infection of vaccinated human agents | |
secretionRate | Real number | The amount of SARS-CoV-2 secretion by the infected agent |
Real number | The probability of death of human agents | |
Real number | The probability of movement of human agents in the environment | |
Real number | The probability of small movement of human agents in the environment | |
Integer; days | Incubation time | |
Integer; days | Recovery time | |
State | Integer | The state of human agents (susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered, deceased, quarantined) |
Vaccinated | Boolean | Vaccinated and unvaccinated flag |
Asymptomatic | Boolean | Symptomatic and asymptomatic flag |
Reinfected | Boolean | Reinfection flag |
Variable | Value | Reference/Source |
---|---|---|
x | - | |
y | - | |
[30,48,49] | ||
[30,50] | ||
[30,51] | ||
secretionRate | [2] | |
[30] | ||
[30] | ||
[30] | ||
[52] | ||
14 | [52] | |
State | Susceptible | - |
Parameter | Value |
---|---|
populationSize | 200 |
facilityWidth | 36 |
facilityHeight | 36 |
simulationDays | 365 |
maxMovementsPerDay | 350 |
maxRadiusLocalMovement | 5 |
distanceOfContagion | 1.5 |
initialNumberOfInfectedAgents | 0 |
numberOfVaccinatedAgents | 0 |
numberOfAsymptomaticAgents | 100 |
externalInfectionParameter | 0.015 |
indirectTransmissionDistance | 2 |
decayRate | 0.25 |
secretionRate | 0.008 |
indirectTransmissionParameter | 0.015 |
Parameter | Values | Base Scenario Value |
---|---|---|
distanceOfContagion | 1.5 | |
recoveryTime | 14 | |
facilityWidth | 36 | |
facilityHeight | ||
maxMovementsPerDay | 350 | |
incubationTimeRange | [5, 6] | |
initialNumberOfInfectedAgents | 0 | |
numberOfVaccinatedAgents | 0 | |
numberOfAsymptomaticAgents | 100 |
Parameters * | Total Infected | Infected at Peak | Peak Time | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Red Lines | Avg Diff | % Red Lines | Avg Diff | % Red Lines | Avg Diff | |||||||
100 | 0.89 | 100 | 37.38 | 12.52 | −23.28 | |||||||
99.45 | 99.03 | 0.29 | 0.28 | 97.18 | 96.02 | 9.95 | 8.09 | 65.70 | 66.94 | 1.69 | 1.80 | |
0.00 | 0.00 | −0.81 | −0.24 | 0.00 | 0.14 | −25.13 | −13.12 | 90.26 | 79.01 | 14.16 | 8.72 | |
99.51 | 99.03 | 0.29 | 0.26 | 98.42 | 99.24 | 9.48 | 7.89 | 32.92 | 15.43 | −1.92 | −7.11 | |
99.72 | 99.65 | 0.22 | 0.21 | 100 | 99.93 | 13.46 | 13.40 | 36.07 | 33.19 | −5.24 | −4.03 | |
50.68 | 44.17 | 0.012 | 0.00 | 76.13 | 88.34 | 1.63 | 3.27 | 0.07 | 0.27 | −46.23 | −17.83 | |
1.17 | 0.82 | −0.14 | −0.14 | 1.30 | 2.19 | −9.00 | −8.37 | 71.87 | 75.50 | 3.49 | 3.52 | |
100 | 100 | 0.44 | 0.50 | 99.93 | 100 | 21.80 | 25.86 | 48.35 | 36.21 | −4.28 | −5.18 |
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Ebrahimi, A.H.; Alesheikh, A.A.; Hooshangi, N.; Sharif, M.; Mollalo, A. Modeling COVID-19 Transmission in Closed Indoor Settings: An Agent-Based Approach with Comprehensive Sensitivity Analysis. Information 2024, 15, 362. https://doi.org/10.3390/info15060362
Ebrahimi AH, Alesheikh AA, Hooshangi N, Sharif M, Mollalo A. Modeling COVID-19 Transmission in Closed Indoor Settings: An Agent-Based Approach with Comprehensive Sensitivity Analysis. Information. 2024; 15(6):362. https://doi.org/10.3390/info15060362
Chicago/Turabian StyleEbrahimi, Amir Hossein, Ali Asghar Alesheikh, Navid Hooshangi, Mohammad Sharif, and Abolfazl Mollalo. 2024. "Modeling COVID-19 Transmission in Closed Indoor Settings: An Agent-Based Approach with Comprehensive Sensitivity Analysis" Information 15, no. 6: 362. https://doi.org/10.3390/info15060362