1. Introduction
Winter is a critical period for most living organisms [
1] living in temperate and boreal latitudes and directly affects the dynamics of bird populations in these latitudes [
2]. Winter is a unique period that allows us to study the spatial distribution of not only individual species, but also the whole bird population. However, the spatial distribution of birds in winter remains poorly studied [
3]. In Europe, such research is quite rare and is mainly confined to urban areas and usually without division into specific biotopes [
4,
5,
6,
7,
8,
9,
10,
11,
12]. In the era of rapid climate change [
3,
13,
14,
15,
16,
17,
18] forest ecosystems are fragile and the rational use and protection of biological diversity in them is only possible given a knowledge of the characteristics of the animal communities occupying them [
19]. Climate change greatly affects the distribution and density of birds [
20], as well as influencing the functioning of forest ecosystems [
21,
22]. In this regard, forests and the living organisms inhabiting them need accurate monitoring in a long-term context. In addition to gaining knowledge on the spatial distribution of bird species, such monitoring can also contribute to autecological research [
23,
24,
25,
26,
27]. In particular, by assessing the degree of spatial contiguity of different species, it is possible to more objectively and in more detail identify interspecies relationships and thereby supplement the understanding of the structure of communities.
The spatial heterogeneity of the bird population can be influenced by changes in natural and climatic conditions, both during the breeding and wintering periods. Winter conditions vary more geographically than summer conditions [
28,
29,
30]; therefore, it is critical to understand how species distribute spatially in response to winter conditions, not just during the warmer seasons of the year.
As we have previously shown on the basis of many years of research, the main abiotic factors of the biological impact of winter conditions on birds are temperature, snow cover, and food resources [
3,
16,
31], which are often closely interrelated. However, the interaction between the use of habitat by birds and spatial changes in natural and climatic conditions during winter in Eastern Europe is still poorly studied.
In this study, we attempted to understand how habitat influences the spatial heterogeneity of species during winter in Eastern Europe. Using data from the monitoring of wintering birds over 5 years, covering 83 species in the Republic of Tatarstan (eastern part of European Russia), we tried to answer the following questions: (1) Are there differences in the total density and species richness of the bird population between early and late winter? (2) Is there a spatial difference in bird assemblages and in individual bird species? (3) Which, if any, environmental variables affect these differences?
4. Discussion
Our study is the first to analyze the spatial distribution of birds in forests in the extreme east of the European continent in winter. The total density of birds significantly decreased in late winter compared to early winter; mainly due to a decrease in the number of Common Bullfinch and small insectivorous birds: Goldcrest, Coal Tit, Willow Tit, Long-tailed Tit, Blue Tit, Eurasian Treecreeper, and Eurasian Nuthatch. The main reason for the decrease in the abundance of these bird species is likely harsh winter conditions leading to mortality [
3]. Furthermore, the probability of occurrence and density for all bird species including true thrushes, Rough-legged Buzzard, Eurasian Wren, European Robin, and Yellowhammer were also significantly reduced. For example, the European Robin, which was recorded in more than a third of the sites in early winter, was found in only two sites in late winter. In Poland, such a pattern was not apparent, species richness and total abundance were higher in late winter than in early winter [
10]. We believe these differences were associated with the milder climate in Poland compared to our study area in the far east of Europe. But even under the harsh climate of our study area, there have been marked changes in the species composition of birds in winter due to a rapidly warming climate. Reduced extreme weather [
31] and warming in winter [
16] allow some bird species to remain in the study area throughout the winter. For example, at the end of the 20th century [
32], European Robin and Song Thrush did not occur in Tatarstan in late winter. Bird diversity in Tatarstan forests, as indicated by the Shannon index, in early winter is slightly higher than in late winter. This is due to the larger number of bird species in early winter and a reduced dominance of common species.
As in our study, the total abundance of birds in Poland was higher toward the west [
10]. None of the bird species in our study preferred eastern sites, with the exception of the Eurasian Nutcracker in late winter. This general pattern was to be expected because, in both Tatarstan and Poland, the climate is milder in winter toward the west. None of our studied bird species in winter had a higher probability of occurrence at higher elevations. Higher elevations are also associated with harsher environments and therefore do not attract birds in winter. It is interesting that the response of the bird community to elevation was similar to that of fish communities in the same region [
39]. In winter, during very harsh conditions and low temperatures, when the birds need additional food resources [
31,
40,
41], total bird density was higher in areas with more Rowan berries. The positive effect of Rowan berries on bird diversity was also noted in Finland [
42,
43]. As well as specialized species of frugivores, other birds, for example, from the corvid family, also actively eat Rowan berries in winter. But the main factor influencing the distribution of bird species, both in the early and late winter, was conifer cover. Bird species richness was higher in mixed forests with a predominance of conifers. These habitats are most attractive for different bird species since they offer more protection from severe weather, and greater productivity in the winter season [
40].
Comparing our results on individual bird species with those from elsewhere in Europe generates marked differences. In Poland, the most common bird species in winter were the Great Tit, Blue Tit, Eurasian Magpie, and Common Blackbird [
10]. The latter two species are rarely found in winter in Tatarstan. Furthermore, the probability of occurrence of Hawfinch and Common Chaffinch was much higher in Poland than in our study. Other species in Poland, such as Common Buzzard and Syrian Woodpecker, are not yet found in Tatarstan in the winter in forests. In contrast, the probability of occurrence of Rough-legged Buzzard, White-tailed Eagle, Common Redpoll, Pygmy Owl, Common Raven, Eurasian Treecreeper, Willow Tit, Long-tailed Tit, Lesser Spotted Woodpecker, and Black Woodpecker is much higher in our region. In Poland, these species are rarer and are recorded in no more than 10% of sites [
10]. These differences are due to the historical development of these regions, and to climatic conditions affecting bird assemblages both directly and indirectly. Despite marked differences in the bird assemblages in different parts of Europe, some bird species have similar ecological and geographical preferences. For example, the preference of Three-toed Woodpecker for coniferous trees in Europe has been reported [
44,
45] and confirmed in our study. In Finland, as in our study, the Goldfinch, Yellowhammer, and Blue Tit preferred deciduous forests in the south [
5]. Our reported preference for the Boreal Owl for conifer forests was also noted in Finland [
46]. A strong association between Waxwing and Rowan yield has been noted in Finland [
47,
48].
Our research on the spatial distribution of individual species of birds shows strong spatial differentiation. In early winter, we found contrasting preferences between individual bird species, which can be broadly divided into two groups: the first group preferred northern latitudes and forests with a predominance of conifer species, and the second group was represented by species that live mainly in deciduous forests in the south. For Great Spotted and White-backed Woodpeckers, we observe contrasting latitudinal distributions within Tatarstan. For Coal Tit and Blue Tit, we also found similar differences in spatial distribution. These species are evolutionarily close and, perhaps, we see here not just different geographical preferences, but a spatial replacement of one species with the other. In late winter, we saw a similar pattern but the number of species preferring southern regions and deciduous forests was higher. In late winter, we recorded a more even pattern of bird species on a latitudinal gradient and a stronger relationship with elevation. In our opinion, this is due to the much more severe climatic conditions in late winter. Some bird species appeared indifferent to environmental variables, for example, the Ural Owl. Long-tailed Tit, a common bird species in our study, shows a high degree of indifference to forest types and the geographical location of the forest area. This species is not tied to specific biotopes and has an extremely high degree of mobility [
3].
In the era of socialization of science, when a huge number of volunteers are involved in the study of the spatial distribution of birds, it is necessary to properly organize the long-term monitoring of bird population dynamics. Birds can easily move around forests but prefer the environmental conditions to which they are most evolutionarily adapted [
24,
40]. Our studies in Tatarstan show that both the probability of occurrence of individual species and the total density of birds are heterogeneous. For example, if we had conducted most of our surveys south of 55°N, the probability of occurrence of Coal Tits would have been less than 15%, and their density at most sites would have been zero. In some published research, there is an indication that the abundance of boreal bird species has decreased significantly [
49,
50,
51]. But a large number of those studies were conducted in southern regions [
52]. Our study shows that extrapolating those findings to a larger area is not satisfactory.
Climate warming has a serious impact on the avifauna and seriously changes distributions and the migratory status of species. For example, in contrast to descriptions in [
53], Eastern Imperial Eagle, Stock Dove, Dunnock, Chiffchaff, European Robin, and Rustic Bunting are now residents in winter and not just summer visitors to this region. Middle Spotted Woodpeckers have also been recorded in Tatarstan, far in the east of the continent. This once again emphasizes how important data collected from little-studied areas (which are under-represented in the world scientific literature) are for a global understanding of events occurring in nature.
Our study is an attempt to show the spatial distribution of birds in winter in Eastern Europe. At this stage of the work, long-term dynamics in the abundance of bird populations and individual species have not been taken into account. There is a need for further research using abundance data to clearly show how the spatial structure of birds is changing under the influence of a changing climate.
We were limited in the elevation gradient, and so there were no species in our study that preferred high-elevation sites. Studies of the effect of elevation (for example, using data east of Tatarstan closer to the Ural Mountains) on bird populations would merit attention. Our research was conducted on big plots using long transects, with basic measures of food resources, and possibly may not reflect the preferences of specific species for microhabitats. It is possible that detectability may vary between early and late winter, for example by increased snowfall, or greater singing activity, although detected numbers were still generally lower in late winter.