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Water
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Analysis of Extreme Precipitation under Climate Change
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Analysis of Extreme Precipitation under Climate Change

A special issue of Water (ISSN 2073-4441). This special issue belongs to the section "Water and Climate Change".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 20 September 2024 | Viewed by 1038

Special Issue Editor

Dr. **aosheng Qin

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore
Interests: hydrological modeling; extreme weather analysis; climate change impact assessment and adaptative planning; water resources and environmental systems planning
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Climate change is anticipated to have a profound impact on precipitation patterns worldwide. Regions already susceptible to heavy rainfall may face more frequent and severe flooding, while those accustomed to snowfall might encounter intensified and prolonged snowstorms. Moreover, alterations in atmospheric circulation patterns due to climate change could disrupt the distribution and timing of precipitation, potentially exacerbating drought conditions in certain areas and leading to shifts in seasonal precipitation patterns. These changes may carry extensive implications for water resource management, infrastructure resilience, ecosystem dynamics, and community vulnerability. Hence, this Special Issue endeavors to explore the intricate relationship between extreme precipitation events and the broader context of climate change. Topics of interest include extreme precipitation analysis, joint-probabilistic risks of compound events, climate model downscaling, bias correction of precipitation data, hydrological impacts of climate change, and other relevant topics. By delving into these themes, this Special Issue aims to advance our comprehension of extreme precipitation events within the framework of climate change, fostering interdisciplinary dialogue among researchers, policymakers, and practitioners to address these pressing concerns.

Dr. **aosheng Qin
Guest Editor

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at mdpi.longhoe.net by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Water is an international peer-reviewed open access semimonthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2600 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • extreme precipitation
  • climate change
  • downscaling
  • compound events
  • hydrological impact

Published Papers (2 papers)

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Research

18 pages, 4594 KiB  
Article
Improving Flood Forecasting Skill by Combining Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts and Multiple Hydrological Models in a Mountainous Basin
by Yiheng **ang, Tao Peng, Haixia Qi, Zhiyuan Yin and Tieyuan Shen
Water 2024, 16(13), 1887; https://doi.org/10.3390/w16131887 - 1 Jul 2024
Viewed by 396
Abstract
Ensemble precipitation forecasts (EPFs) derived from single numerical weather predictions (NWPs) often miss extreme events, and individual hydrological models (HMs) often fail to accurately capture all types of flows, including flood peaks. To address these shortcomings, this study introduced four “EPF + HM” [...] Read more.
Ensemble precipitation forecasts (EPFs) derived from single numerical weather predictions (NWPs) often miss extreme events, and individual hydrological models (HMs) often fail to accurately capture all types of flows, including flood peaks. To address these shortcomings, this study introduced four “EPF + HM” schemes for ensemble flood forecasting (EFF) by combining two EPFs and two HMs. A generator-based post-processing (GPP) method was applied to correct biases and under-dispersion within the raw EPF data. The effectiveness of these schemes in delivering high-quality flood forecasts was assessed using both deterministic and probabilistic metrics. The results indicate that, once post-processed by GPP, all proposed schemes show improvements in both deterministic and probabilistic performances, with skillful flood forecasts for 1–7 lead days. The deterioration in forecast performance with extended lead times is also lessened. Notably, the results indicate that uncertainty within hydrological models has a more pronounced impact on capturing flood peaks than uncertainty in precipitation inputs. This study recommends combining individual EPF with multiple hydrological models for reliable flood forecasting. In conclusion, effective flood forecasting necessitates employing post-processing techniques to correct EPFs and accounting for the uncertainty inherent in hydrological models, rather than relying solely on the uncertainty of the input data. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Analysis of Extreme Precipitation under Climate Change)
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20 pages, 6602 KiB  
Article
Risk of Natural Hazards Caused by Extreme Precipitation in Poland in 1951–2020
by Robert Kalbarczyk and Eliza Kalbarczyk
Water 2024, 16(12), 1705; https://doi.org/10.3390/w16121705 - 15 Jun 2024
Viewed by 420
Abstract
Extreme precipitation of a minimum daily value of >30 mm often initiates natural hazards such as floods, which in turn may not only lead to property damage but also present a danger to people’s health and lives. This paper mainly focuses on examining [...] Read more.
Extreme precipitation of a minimum daily value of >30 mm often initiates natural hazards such as floods, which in turn may not only lead to property damage but also present a danger to people’s health and lives. This paper mainly focuses on examining the trends and frequency of extreme daily precipitation (EDPr) in Poland. Also, it determines natural risk zones caused by EDPr of >30 mm, >50 mm, >70 mm, and >100 mm. In Poland, a significant positive trend was found for EDPr > 30 mm, >50 mm, and >70 mm in September, and for EDPr >100 mm in May. The most frequently recorded EDPr in Poland was >30 mm, the frequency of which ranged from 0.04% in February to nearly 3% in July. EDPr of >100 mm was recorded in 4 months, from May to August. An increase in the frequency of monthly EDPr in Poland occurred mainly in the southwestern and western parts. In Poland, three hazard zones of various frequencies of EDPr events were determined. In Zone III, which is in the southwestern and southern parts of the country, EDPr events occurred far more often than in Zone I; on average, four times more in the spring–summer season and slightly more than five times more in the autumn–winter season. The obtained results may help in the building of modern management and monitoring systems for the prevention of natural hazards caused by extreme precipitation. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Analysis of Extreme Precipitation under Climate Change)
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